Scientists and wildfire researchers teamed up with the non-profit First Street Foundation to create a new model to analyze property-specific wildfire risks.
First Street created its wildfire risk assessment score using multiple data sources, including fuel estimates from the U.S. Forest Service and topographic maps.
A property’s “Fire Factor” is rated on a scale of 1 to 10. The highest rating, a 9 or 10, means a property faces a nearly 1 in 3 chance of a wildfire over the next three decades. The group’s model tries to predict wildfire risks for the next 30 years.
Three out of every four properties face a minimal or minor risk (1% or less) of a wildfire. However, 1.5 million properties confront an extreme risk probability.
In California, the number of risky properties is around 100,000, but First Street believes that number will grow six-fold by 2050.
For wildfire risks in 2022, Southern California is home to three of the top five counties in the U.S. Riverside County tops the annual burn probability with more than 77% of homes at risk. Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties also crack the top 5 for present-day wildfire risk.
With its model and an online search tool, First Street wants to bring greater awareness of property owners’ risks. The group also produces a similar score for flooding risk.
The group has partnered with realtor.com to help homebuyers factor wildfire risk into their property decisions.
To look up your home or property visit riskfactor.com.